Summary of Current Mule Deer Population Status in Montana
May 29, 2002

Although portions of Montana received much needed precipitation during May, much of Montana east of the divide remains in drought conditions. If additional precipitation is not forthcoming in June and to a lesser extent in July and August, range conditions will again be adversely affected. Dry conditions during late spring and early summer can reduce mule deer survival rates, particularly in the fawn and older adult doe age classes, during the following winter period. Several years of poor fawn recruitment, combined with higher than average mortality of adult females, will initiate a downward trend in overall deer numbers.

Currently, with a few exceptions, total numbers of mule deer remain at or above the long-term average. However, lower recruitment rates observed in portions of the state this spring are a signal that population trends may be changing. This could be a one-year minor setback if favorable environmental conditions return. Modeling indicates that if this summer continues into a deepening drought, population declines could be more widespread and significant, especially if next winter is even moderately severe. For the most part, hunting seasons should not need to be adjusted this fall due to current deer numbers that have been observed, but the precipitation patterns over the next three months will provide a good indication of the survival outlook for this year's fawn crop. Final quotas are not established until August, so there is still time to make adjustments in harvest for this fall if it is warranted.

The following is a summary of the current mule deer population status in each region of the state.

Region 1:
Mule deer recruitment as measured by spring surveys was down this year compared to last due to a more normal winter. Fawn /adult ratios in the Horse Range and west Kootenai (HD100) were in the high 30s and 40s/100 adults. Ratios were in the mid-30s in the west Galtons (HD101) and in the high 40s in the cougar peak area (HD121). In 2001 the region-wide ratio was 54/100. Long-term mule deer recruitment averages are in the mid 40's.

Region 2:
Fawn recruitment was generally good this spring, ranging for the most part in the 40s and 50s fawns per 100 adults. Lowest recruitment rates were in the Lower Clark Fork (HD 202) at 35 fawns/100 adults and in the upper Blackfoot (HD 281) at 30 fawns/100 adults. The two census areas in the region are both right at the long-term average. Due to helicopter availability, three of the trend survey areas were flown too early, before the late green-up, and ratios and population trend may not have been indicative of actual numbers. In one case, high winds forced the survey to end early. All in all though, the numbers appear to be holding their own in most of the region and recruitment is good. Of the trend and census survey areas where adequate sample sizes of mule deer were observed, four were above the long-term average, three were at the long-term average, and one was below. In the Bitterroot numbers were up quite a bit from previous years and recruitment was in the high 40s. The restriction to both limited and unlimited permits for antlered bucks has resulted in increased buck/doe ratios.

Region 3:
Spring survey results were a mixed bag in Region 3 this spring. The Limestones and Big Belts (HD's 380 and 392) had lower fawn/adult ratios; around 24-25 fawns per100 adults. The Madison survey also indicated lower recruitment this year, near 25 fawns /100 adults. However, the Upper Big Hole and most of the southwestern portion of the region had ratios in the high 30s to upper 50s, comparable to long term averages. In the Census Area on the west side of the Bridger Mountains, the numbers were about the same as last year, near 30% above the long term averages for the area. However, fawn ratios were only 23/100 adults. We documented over-winter fawn losses, estimated to amount to 33% or more of the fawns in the population at the start of the winter period. We also documented over-winter losses of older adult females. On the east side of the Bridgers, the mule deer have yet to recover from the mid 1990s decline. Numbers observed this year continue to be low, some 20% fewer than last year. Recruitment on the east side of the Bridgers is currently at 27/100 adults, which is similar to last year.

Region 4:
Similar to Region 3, Region 4 spring surveys yielded mixed results. Numbers along the Rocky Mountain Front approach or are at long term averages with recruitment rates recorded at 34f/100 adults. Higher ratios were noted in the northern sections. The Little Belts survey recorded doe numbers at the 3rd highest level on record and substantially above the long-term averages, but fawn recruitment was in the mid 20s. The rest of Region 4, from the Missouri River at Great Falls downstream remains in a severe drought condition. Thus, it is not surprising that we observed a marked reduction in recruitment in these areas. Ratios have been recorded in the low 20s in the Missouri Breaks and as low as 8/100 in the Coffee/Arrow Creek vicinity. The number of bucks is good and total numbers are still above average.

Region 5:
The prairie areas are doing poorer than the mountainous country. The prairie Census Area in HD 530 was extremely dry last year and this year numbers remain 12 % below the average for the last five years. Recruitment was recorded at 19 fawns /100 adults, but the survey conditions were poor this spring. An adjacent trend area in HD 511 recorded 44 fawns /100 adults. The other mountain Census Area in HD 575 was 5% above the last 5-year average but recruitment was down 10%, in the low 40s. Over all the spring counts on all prairie areas are down about 10% in numbers. If another dry year occurs then we will have to start reducing harvest. With continued drought we can expect increases in game damage, even though recruitment is down.

Region 6:
Fewer mule deer were noted south of Malta, but the remainder of the region is above average. There are high numbers of yearlings and younger does and increased numbers of bucks in the population, which can contribute to a reduction in the observed fawn/adult ratios. The three hunting districts with restrictive seasons showed reduced recruitment (25/100 - 35/100). The HD 690 Census Area is at the long-term average in total numbers and fawn recruitment was 44 fawns/100 adults. Bitter Creek (HD670) deer density is 35% below the long term average but again, fawn recruitment is 44 fawns /100 adults and the population here has been on the increase (double the numbers now compared to 2000).

Region 7:
The surveys were less than optimum in Region 7 this spring because of the late green-up. Green-up did not begin until the 3rd week of April, after surveys had been completed. North of Forsyth fawn recruitment was 31/100adults. However, fawn recruitment was in the 80s in the eastern portion of the region. Basically we noted higher numbers and fawn recruitment in the areas with higher recorded moisture. Region-wide, recruitment averaged 58 fawns/100 adults. Two survey areas had recruitment rates in the 80s fawns /100 adults range; 2 in the 70's; 3 in the 60's, 2 in the 50's 3 in the 40's and 1 in the 30's. Deer counted on the Cherry Creek census area were down 12% from the long-term average. Region-wide, spring mule deer numbers are 10% above the long term average with 5 survey areas having numbers >20% above the long term average; 5 areas from <20% above to >30% below the long term average; and one >30% below the long term average. The areas north of Jordan, north of Forsyth and Ekalaka were above the long-term average. We noted increases in numbers of mule deer on whitetail trend areas. On the Tie Creek whitetail trend area 122 mule deer were tallied, compared to 40 in 2001 and a long-term average of 53. We still have reports that people are seeing considerable numbers of deer and although recruitment has dropped somewhat, numbers remain high and because of the dry conditions, we expect to receive continued game damage complaints later this summer and early fall.